The US about 4 and a half weeks assassinated Ayatollah Ali Ham but now his son Mosh Taba Ham has Replaced him has Iran's supreme leader a tough one that can menover and became the hardliner that outflanked Iran's politicians not only stood up to other countries not only stood up to the west not only stood up to iraq. He is motivated by revenge the US says this is not the change they were looking for. The trump administration expects the regine to surrender based on trumps past tweets the regine is not stopping yet. Taba outflanked other countries and he is saying he is not going to give away to other countries there were times he did have to give away especially times around the 2015 nuclear agreement he died around February 28th.
The Destruction
Now there saying to trump come and get them the trump folks killed Taba father and wife. There will be someone else lined up to take power meaning the regine does not surrender. If it doesn't work Professor Lucas argues that the U.S. strategy of bombing the regime into submission is ineffective, drawing parallels to the long-term presence of Hamas in Gaza despite heavy military action. destroying infrastructure and leadership does not automatically result in a stable, pro-Western government, but rather creates a vacuum and potential for chaos The conflict has caused a massive surge in global energy prices,
with oil reaching levels not seen since 1973 the inflationary impact on fuel, food, and electricity will create significant domestic pressure on the Trump administration the war likely will not end until the economic impact forces the Trump administration to seek an "off-ramp" due to declining support from domestic voters. the danger of escalating the conflict further, specifically the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20-25% of global oil passes and the risk that the current administration's lack of a clear "Plan B" is causing panic among officials. Oil prices have risen to between $110 and $120 a barrel, with projections suggesting they could reach $150 per barrel. Tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz a vital route for 20% of the world's oil which has significantly slowed shipments and pushed prices higher Additionally, attacks on oil infrastructure, such as the targeting of five facilities near Tehran and the closure of major refineries in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, have further destabilized supply
USA Prices
gasoline prices have been directly impacted by the conflict, noting that they spiked by 13% in a single day due to the broader market disruption Professor Scott Lucas explains that these rising costs have returned gas prices to levels last seen in September 2024, putting significant pressure on the Trump administration, which had previously campaigned on maintaining lower energy costs Furthermore, the speakers highlight that if the conflict continues to drive oil prices higher, it will eventually force further increases in costs for the American consumer at the pump
European Prices
European gas prices jumped nearly 40% in a single day after Qatar was forced to shut down two major liquefied natural gas plants. Professor Lucas also reports that the cost of domestic heating oil has doubled in Ireland compared to ten days prior. these energy shocks will inevitably lead to higher costs for food, transport, and electricity, creating an inflationary environment not seen since the pandemic
gasoline prices have been directly impacted by the conflict, noting that they spiked by 13% in a single day due to the broader market disruption Professor Scott Lucas explains that these rising costs have returned gas prices to levels last seen in September 2024, putting significant pressure on the Trump administration, which had previously campaigned on maintaining lower energy costs Furthermore, the speakers highlight that if the conflict continues to drive oil prices higher, it will eventually force further increases in costs for the American consumer at the pump
European Prices
European gas prices jumped nearly 40% in a single day after Qatar was forced to shut down two major liquefied natural gas plants. Professor Lucas also reports that the cost of domestic heating oil has doubled in Ireland compared to ten days prior. these energy shocks will inevitably lead to higher costs for food, transport, and electricity, creating an inflationary environment not seen since the pandemic
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